This is going to be the first posting with my study notes. As I previously mentioned, it may lack some figures that I'm not sure the copyrights would allow me to publish from my tutors. I also cannot comment on how the notes are going to look like in future, since this is just a beginning and I think I am taking more time than I should to do all the readings and stuff. What I'm saying is that the notes may shrink in future. But I'm giving it a try, please, be nice in attitudes when reading them, since I'm not yet academically familiar with these concepts. However, be critical, add comments, thoughts and suggestions when read these!
The notes will include textual notes and incorporated questions that I am asked as a student during the study process. I'll try to keep postings as structural as possible so you can retrace various articles if want to.
Climate Change and Development: the challenges of our time
<!--[if !supportLists]-->1.0 <!--[endif]-->Climate change and
development: challenges of our time.
Climate
change and development are arguably the two most important challenges facing
the world. This section outlines the context, nature, and scale of these two
challenges and introduces some important parallels and interactions between
them.
<!--[if !supportLists]-->·
<!--[endif]-->define the terms 'climate change' and 'development'
<!--[if !supportLists]-->1.1.
<!--[endif]-->Climate change challenges are depending on the particular location and its various
characteristics (economic, social, current climate issues etc.). Climate change
is a long term alterations in the behaviour patterns of the atmosphere, caused
by millennia of natural, and more recently, by human causes. Climate consists
of many variables- temperature, precipitation (rainfall, hail, snow) and its patterns,
wind direction and speed, atmospheric pressure, humidity, nature and extent of
clouds, hours and intensity of sunlight. It varies spatially also depending on
distance from the sea (altitude) or equator (latitude), and temporally by
variations of seasons or even days. Due to this amount of various factors that
make up the climate change, it should not be confused with global warming,
since global warming is only one contributing factor. This factor, however,
should not be diminished either, since very small increase in global average
temperature can have adverse effects on the climate or some of its other
„components”. One should also acknowledge that global warming as a trend can be
accompanied by local or temporary falls of temperature.
Climate change
definitions also differ by the organisation that uses it.
Climate change in IPCC usage refers to any change in climate over time, whether
due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. Therefore this definition
differs from use of climate change term in the UNFCCC, where it refers to a
change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity
that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to
natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.
It is
recognized that anthropological climate change main factors are burning fossil
fuels for transport, energy and industry, vegetation (forest) clearance, and livestock
keeping. All of these increase the
global temperature and affect the natural cycles of climate change that lead
into a kind of a vicious circle – the larger the temperature, sea level and climate
change scale rise, the more it increases. IPCC has clearly explaining figures
that show how a very small change in temperature can have major adverse effects
on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, economics and production, and even basic
human needs like accessibility of water, food and health, and change the territories
like coastlines. There are two approaches in calculating the rise of
temperature. First one is the rise from the average pre-industrial conditions
(around 1850), and it is mostly used in various policies and policy discussions
about global warming. The second is rise from the average of period1980-1999
that is used in IPCC materials. One should remember that 2C above
pre-industrial temperature is about 1.5C above period 1980-1999, and about 1.2
C above 2007 since there was rather rapid growth of temperature from the middle
of the period IPCC uses as a baseline.
IPCC Fourth Assessment
Report (FAR) predicted that world will experience rise of a little under 1C
already by 2020, and rise above 1.5C by 2050. The continuing increase of
temperature will depend on socio-economic pathways, world’s capabilities of
mitigation and adaptation to climate change. Some models and present facts show
that some climate indicators are already approaching the upper end of the
predicted range or even growing at greater rates like sea level rise, for
example. The nearest projection of the temperature rise of 1C can seam little,
but the effects expected are large- it will increase water availability in
moist tropics and high latitudes, but will decrease water availability and
increase drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes, that will lead
to hundreds of millions of people exposed to increased water stress. 1C
increase will lead to increased coral bleaching; increasing species range
shifts and wildfire risk, increasing amphibian extinction. It will also affect
food production by having complex, localised negative impacts on small holders,
subsistence farmers and fishers, depending on the location it will increase or
decrease the crop productivity. Coasts will experience increased damage from floods
and storms that will put more and more people under flood risk every year. Temperature
rise of 1C will affect the health of people, increasing burden from
malnutrition, diarrhoeal, cardio-respiratory, and infectious diseases. Even
sooner increased morbidity and mortality from heat waves, floods and droughts
is expected, and so is the change in distribution of some disease vectors. There
will be also singular events like local retreat of ice of Greenland and West
Antarctic. With every degree of temperature rising there will be more and
increasing severe impacts on already mentioned areas, and one can expect
structural and irreversible changes in behaviour of the aquatic and climate
system that will in turn have adverse effect on climate.
Most of the
affected people will be at the developing countries, and it is billions in
numbers. These are the countries that have the least capability to mitigate or
adapt to the coming changes or already present climate change impacts. Already
complex development issues of these countries are becoming threatened by the
new challenges of adaptation to the climate change. There are also many issues
of development that are obstacles of the adaptation.
Q- Given the scale and severity of the impacts
discussed above, are there other natural, social, and political impacts that
might be expected to result from climate change? What do you think these might
be?
Few important
natural impacts should be mentioned. One of them is the variety of tipping
points that our planet has that are relevant to the climate change. One of such
is the natural storage of methane that is located in permafrost and deep ocean
crystals. Once the permafrost starts to melt, and latest data shows that it has
begun already, it will release huge amounts of methane in the atmosphere, and
even though its life span is shorter, methane is the one GHG that has about 20
times larger warming effect than the CO2. If more methane gets into
the atmosphere, the faster increase of global temperature will happen, and if
this process reaches the tipping point that will in turn accelerate further melting
of permafrost, turning it into a vicious circle.
Since climate
change will lead to mass migration that will start at smaller levels in nearer
periods but will grow with time, there will be unresolved question what to do
with the climate refugees from developing countries that are not capable to
take care of them. At more technologically and financially well adapt areas
there will be a discussion of social and economic costs of relocation of people
in coastal or low laying areas vs. adaptation measures. Currently there are
discussions about funding clean development, adaptation and mitigation measures
and technologies, continuous aid to developing nations, however, with time the matter
will become more and more pressing, increasing number of people and countries
will occur in need of help, and then the political question whether to fund the
aid will become more daunting, especially if climate change impacts will need
attention at home too.
There are also
several security issues that will rise. One of how to deal with climate
refugees that will increase in number and will look forward to other countries
to take them in. Will they open or close their borders and access to their
resources? Current rate of arms race makes one think that many countries will
not be willing to share their resources but rather try to use the ones of
others. Many countries that are already civil or international war torn will
experience increasing competition in attempts to control the resources in their
territories. Many new military conflicts are expected to break out in resource scarce
areas. That will add the regular war and post-war effects to the ones of
climate change.
The ethical and
emotional aspects should also be included in the discussions. People not only physically
need the food, water, shelter, health, but also are emotionally attached to all
that. Relocation of climate affected inhabitants will also need psychological
help. Educating every individual and preparing them for the issues of climate
change should be on policies and development plans. Ethical questions of whose
responsibility is the climate change will also be a difficult one. Developing
nations are rightfully blaming the industrialised nations for past emissions,
but developed countries are not only unwilling to give up their „business as
usual” is not the only issue here. Their people feel they also should not pay
for their predecessors. They as individuals feel they should have the same
weight of responsibility as any other person on the planet, but that is
unreachable since there are large differences on people’s willingness to change
their behavioural patterns at the nearest future.
Behavioural questions
will also matter with increasing climate change. Currently some people live on
nothing and wish to earn at whatever cost for the planet, some people consume
and pollute unreasonably not willing to change. Some people are leaders of
changing the behaviour to mitigate climate change and promote sustainable
development, and then there’s part of people willing to change their behaviour only
if all of the others will do. Social movements and unity of people have had
immense power in history, will people be able to act in union with climate
change impacts increasing by years is the question that will be answered only
when the time comes. They might as well go for the “strongest will survive”
option disregarding morals and higher human values when the extinction, famine,
thirst and loss of homes start.
If we look at
the opportunities to reduce the impacts of climate change and how they would
affect various people, various scenarios can be built. Development of clean
technologies, localised organic food production, green urban development,
education of society at all levels, alternative energy, alternative transport
and home redevelopment, cradle to cradle production, etc. If these things would
become a common way of life in few places, they would become also more
available for others too and therefore spread. Taking the opportunity to
mitigate the climate change and limit the global warming at the temperature
increase that does not cause irreversible and existential changes in terrestrial
and aquatic ecosystems would have immense impact on all of the people.
Depending on timing it could not only spare people the worst of the above
impacts of climate change, but could also contribute in development.
***
Development is a rather difficult term to define. There are two main approaches that
have defined the development. First, it is the economic dimension of
development that looks for improvement in economies; income based living
conditions, consumption and production, savings and investments, food security,
poverty reduction, wealth and income distribution, and environmental protection.
Usually the processes that could lead to the above mentioned goals are economic
policies, infrastructural and market development, investment, economic and
social structural changes, technical change, efficiency. Second is the human or
social dimension of development that looks for improvement in capabilities, access
to health and education, gender equality, human rights, equity, freedom,
empowerment, particular focus on minority and marginalized groups, security,
dignity. Processes that are supposed to lead to the above goals are equitable
economic growth, empowerment, governance, change in formal and informal rights
and social and economic relations. Such distinction between goals and processes
is not really reflecting the true nature of development since many goals are
parts of the processes as well and they are very complex and interrelating
systems. Also interactions between economic and social development processes
and goals is important, they are not so separated in reality. Greater economic
wealth is needed to invest in education, health and social services. In turn
education is needed for improved economic growth, and so on.
When one speaks
about development it must be understood that the way we see it depend on our
cultural and educational background. Throughout the history development in many
parts has been an export of Western values and lifestyle. Since the
Enlightenment civilization vs. barbarism ideas have been on the minds of
“developed” nations, and so they have continued to be until now.
One other
development has been missing on the above categorizing though; it is the
Sustainable development that is a whole new approach. Even though there is no
one set definition of sustainable development, most common one is the Brundtland Report definition- “development
that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future
generations to meet their own needs”. As for sustainability definition, there
are three pathways of it. Environmental sustainability means the ability of
environmental resources to support an activity or set of activities. Economic
sustainability describes the ability of an activity or set of activities to
yield economic benefits greater than economic costs. Social sustainability is
the ability of social structures and behaviour to support an activity without
being undermined by it.
There are six
defined properties of sustainable system (viability (or productivity),
acceptability (or equity), persistence, stability, resilience, resistance) that
are needed for all- economic, social, environmental- stability, however, one
should assess and measure them with proper analyses and boundaries of
particular system, but with a space to evolve. These six properties are usually
divided in two aspects of sustainability. First viability and acceptability: a
system must be both viable and acceptable for those who work it, since
something that’s not acceptable, will not work in long term, and that should
include both physical and ethical boundaries. Second is how particular system
is sustained over time (persistence), how it survives various turbulences and
responds to stresses maintaining its structure and functions (stability), how
it recovers from adverse changes caused by above (resilience) and how it
evolves to maintain its functions at slow onset and predictable stresses
(resistance).
There is a set
of goals that sums up current development trends, and it is Millennium
Development Goals, provided by the UN. It has been agreed that the most
important development problem is poverty or in other words “underdevelopment”
and that should be internationally dealt with. MDGs provide a framework to act.
For each goal there has been set one or several targets, most for 2015. It is
an interesting period of time since the talks of post-2015 have already begun.
<!--[if !supportLists]-->·
<!--[endif]-->describe the scale of problems posed by climate change
and development
<!--[if !supportLists]-->1.2.
<!--[endif]-->Since the
climate change is a challenge per se it
is then described already above and one should now move on to see the basic
challenges of the development.
One of the main
challenges of the development is the difficulty to predict, how various
processes will actually affect the particular group, for example, will one or
other kind of economic growth really increase the
income, and will the income be distributed evenly or maybe exclude the
marginalized groups or even destroy traditional livelyhoods? Often due to the
„development” local societies, livelihoods, traditions are destroyed, and so is
the access to natural resources or degradation and pollution of them.
If one thinks
about sustainable development, there are many challenges there in all areas-
environmental, economic and social and all combined.
Q- Pause for
a moment and try to think of examples of different activities that are
environmentally, economically, and socially unsustainable.
One of the most
explicit examples of activity that is all environmentally, economically and
socially unsustainable is the current consumerism and “designed to dump”
production. When people are having shopping as one of their hobbies and buy
things they do not actually need and throw them out very soon just to replace
with newer model, it is unreasonable consumption. Our economies have been built
on consumerism as a model of society. It is environmentally unsustainable as it
uses incredible amounts of resources in production and logistics, and then
pollutes the environment. It is economically unsustainable for many societies
with the largest impact on the developing nations where the unsustainable
production takes place- they don’t receive fair wages, health care, education;
they are often exposed to harmful substances, long working hours and work
conditions that would never be accepted in Western countries; the economies of
the consumers are also failing in long term, since there cannot be unlimited economic
growth. Such practices are also socially unsustainable as they enlarge the gaps
in society between rich and poor, if they replace other hobbies, they are not
healthy social activities, and all the above economic effects have a direct
impact on social sustainability of people. Failure in one set of conditions
often is caused and/ or leads to impacts in other two. Any activity that will
in time cause the loss of the favourable conditions of current situation is
unsustainable. For example, large exploitation of non-renewable resources will
lead to a crisis in all areas that depend on them. Similar effects will have
over exploitation of renewable resources if they cannot renew on time.
***
The last decade
has shown that eradicating poverty and reaching MDGs is not an easy task. Also
the success of the efforts to achieve MDGs has been a little ambiguous due to
rise of China and India as economies that were seen as developing when the
goals were set. Percentage data used in MDGs are not reflecting the true
numbers yet. There may be less per cent people in poverty, but there are more
people in poverty than there were before in actual numbers. It is not really a misrepresentation
of mathematical data, but it is a worrying issue. And the overall knowledge is
that development has not made enough progress to deal with either MDGs or basic
economic, human or sustainable development concepts.
Q- Review the Millennium Development Goals and their targets above and
consider whether these are primarily concerned with development goals or
processes, and with economic or human development.
MDG 1, Targets
1 and 2 are both economic development goals by previously mentioned categories;
however, I think they look more like processes rather than goals.
MDG 2, Target 3
is human development goal.
MDG 3 is human
development process, but the Target 4 is more about the goal.
MDG 4, Target 5
- MDG5, Target 6 are human development goals.
MDG 6, Targets
7-8 are human development processes.
MDG 7, Target 9
is economic development process, however
Targets 10-11
are economic development goals.
MDG 8, Target
12 is mixed economic and human development process.
Targets 13-15
are more likely to be economic development processes.
Targets 16-17
are more likely to be human development processes.
Target 18 is
again mixed economic and human development process.
***
<!--[if !supportLists]-->·
<!--[endif]-->discuss some of the interactions between climate
change and development
<!--[if !supportLists]-->1.3.
<!--[endif]-->One of the most
important interactions between climate change and development clearly is that
climate change affects first and most severely the poor people and vulnerable
areas that have low or zero capacity to adapt. That in turn can compromise
already achieved goals in development and slow the progress.
Climate
change is also one of the most important threats to sustainable development and
should be addressed as one of the core issues of the sustainable development.
Act-
Look back at
the figure in 1.1.2 which sets out IPCC FAR estimates of the likely impacts of
climate changes associated with increases in global temperature. For each
'system' listed (water, ecosystems, food, coast, health, singular events)
consider and write down the implications for MDGs 1 to 7. Also consider if
there are other aspects of development (not included in the MDGs) which will be
affected.
MDG1
Eradicate extreme poverty and
hunger- will be undermined by decreasing water availability and increasing
drought. Millions of people will be exposed to increasing water stress that is
already one of the most difficult problems of MDG1. Increasing species range
shifts will affect local and traditional food availability. Negative impacts on
small holders, subsistence farmers and fishers, and fall of the productivity of
crops in dry and semi-arid areas will further decrease food security and threat
by increasing hunger and poverty. Flood
and storm damage will affect housing in coastal risk areas. Health problems
imposed by climate change will affect ability to work and therefore will shrivel
the potential incomes of low income families.
MDG2
Achieve universal primary
education- once the first goal is affected there will be fewer resources to
dedicate to schooling from the government and children also may become more
involved in working and food gathering. Increased damage from floods and storms
will affect also school buildings and other infrastructure. Since children are
one of the risk groups of climate change health impacts, the attendance may
fall and lower the educational progress.
MDG3
Promote gender equality and
empower women- women currently are more vulnerable to the climate
change impacts since they create the largest part of the poor, and in many
places where they are the ones to take care of homes, farming and family, their
empowerment may decrease. If they have to take care of increasingly sick
children, they cannot work and that creates larger gap between genders too.
MDG4
Reduce child mortality- will
become difficult in situation where increased morbidity and mortality from
heatwaves, floods and droughts are affecting a nation. If the mothers are
suffering from increasing malnutrition, diarrhoeal, cardio-respiratory and
infectious diseases, that also increases risk of child mortality. So does the
water stress. Loss of infrastructure by extreme weather events will also affect
the morbidity and mortality of all. MDG5 Improve maternal health- same problems that affect child
mortality are present to maternal health. Additionally, if a woman must work
harder in water and food stressed environment, it decreases her maternal health
and the foetus. If the child mortality increases due to above reasons, women
will most likely have more pregnancies to have children and in certain numbers
that will deteriorate maternal health too. Women and children are also the most
vulnerable to the storms, cyclones, floods and other extreme weather events.
MDG6
Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and
other diseases- IPCC predicts that there will be changed
distribution of some disease vectors. Infectious diseases may spread more
easily in warmer climate. Malnutrition and lack of clean water lowers immunity
and carries increasing risk of getting ill.
MDG7
Ensure environmental
sustainability- climate change itself is a threat to environmental
sustainability and may lead the planet to a tipping point and then there is no
talk about environmental sustainability. As for the nearer future and less
catastrophic scenarios, every degree of temperature rise will severely affect
all ecosystems. Ones of the first most affected will be corals bleaching and
amphibian extinction. Increasing species range shifts and wildfire risk is also
increasing and affecting environmental sustainability. Also increased damage
from floods and storms in coastal areas cannot be regarded as sustainable.
Climate change also alters the national resources – water, energy and
vegetation, and rapid reduction of any of those is not environmentally
sustainable (like loss of water in mountain glacier fed rivers or drying lakes
in Africa, etc.)
Other aspect of
development that is not covered in MDGs is security. Even though development
does not usually talk about other than basic economic and social security like
food, shelter, water, health, rights, I believe the military issues might
become more apparent in case of more severe climate change impacts. Poverty is
often accompanied with civil force combat and military actions. When there is
reduction in important resources, development might be put to a backseat by
“security measures” and competition to rule over those resources and population
by force.
***
It
is difficult to predict the range of how various climate change impacts like
global warming, sea level rise, water resource scarcity and others will affect
spatially and temporally different areas and their climate systems and what
exact effects will that have on human social and economic development in particular
areas. The various data can lead to a risk that policy makers, investors and
aid agencies can choose the less harmful scenarios where they should take into
the account the most serious and severely affecting scenarios for the
developing areas. One should take into account the risk of both underestimating
and overestimating such impacts. Uncertainty is a part of the science itself,
but when it comes to those writing adaptation strategies and development
agendas, they should secure the potential risks on human basic needs- food,
water, shelter, health, security and income to live on that all will be
affected by rising temperature, sea level and extreme weather events even in
present or near future, and these risks are predicted to increase with time.
Act- Given the uncertainties about climate change and its impacts,
and the very nature of climate change in increasing weather variability, it is
immensely difficult to quantify historical, current, or future human impacts of
climate change. The Economist (2009) comments that 'the trend looks
plausible, but there seems little basis for the exact numbers' regarding the
Global Humanitarian Forum estimate that 40% of increased weather-related
disasters can be attributed to climate change. Most statements in the figure in
1.3.2 are either vague or illustrative. What is the value of information like
this, and what are its dangers? You might like to post your comment on this on
the online learning environment for discussion, and if you are interested you
could also read more of the Global Humanitarian Forum report (2009) Human Impact Report: Climate Change
- The Anatomy of a Silent Crisis.
It
is now scientifically proven and recognized that the climate change we are
experiencing now is human caused. While uncertainty is a “part of the game” in
science, vague data or data that are appropriately chosen to show only one side
of the coin is undermining the seriousness of the problem. The dangers of
illustrative or vague data are at both ends. Those who lack political will and
those wishing to continue business as usual will hold on to the low impact
data, use terminology stating that some modelled future scenarios are in “low
confidence” category to happen, and by that try to create a loop to justify
their emissions, pollution etc. Extremists on their part will use the worst
possible scenarios and choose appropriate data and while sometimes such are
great to make an emotional impact on masses to change their behaviour, they
also can seem too extreme and ordinary people will discredit them or perceive
them as too scary to do something about it.
Climate
change being globally recognized as a problem does not offer a solution within
it yet. What matters is how we proceed with mitigation and adaptation.
Underestimating the problem will worsen the situation in future and will put
more weight on adaptation later. Overestimating climate change impacts and
acting accordingly might only benefit the future situation in terms of
sustainable environment; however, it might put a strain on development issues
to redistribute resources towards mitigation and adaptation issues.
I think IPCC with its role to assess the
sources and their reports and findings is working towards the solution of the obscurity
to provide with information which data are reliable and giving the degree of
confidence in particular predictions being correct. Even though when one reads
a projected event and then sees it’s marked “medium confidence”, one might lose
the feeling of importance of such data and in one’s mind bin it as irrelevant
in argument about climate change. So the value of the information is still
dependent on the reader’s educational and behavioural background.
Out of the academic context largely such educational
background relies on media coverage. While media likes to exploit screaming sensational
data, people who will deal with climate change issues professionally or
voluntarily usually choose more subtle and professional media approach like The Economist that I myself particularly
enjoyed in how it displayed both the GHF report and The Anatomy of a Silent Crisis- without undermining the climate
change issues.
***
